Playoff Pickings
By Val Thompson
October is the best month to be a sports fan. You've got the baseball playoffs (which, unlike basketball and football, involve only the upper-eschelon teams and don't drag out for two months), the heart of the NFL regular season, and college football. Professional baseball writers will try, and fail, during the course of the day to select which teams will move on from the opening round of the baseball playoffs. I am no different.
Only four teams will remain after this week in contention for the World Series title. The following are my selections:
San Diego vs. St. Louis: The Padres will stun everyone by beating Cris Carpenter tomorrow night in St. Louis. The Cardinals are cold from playing largely meaningless games in September. In his last four starts, Carpenter is 0-1 with a 9.14 ERA. Also, one of his five losses this year came to the Padres. Peavy, on the other hand, had a 2.03 ERA in September and is backed by a team that has won five its last six.
From there, it will be all downhill for San Diego. Pedro Astacio doesn't have much of a chance against Mark Mulder in game two, and the Padres' offense just doesn't have the firepower to stay with the Cardinals. Adam Eaton has a chance to beat Matt Morris in the first game in San Diego, but it will likely be an offensive showcase for both teams, with the Cards coming out on top.
The Padres are a mediocre team that snuck into the playoffs because they play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball history. They will give the Cardinals more problems than St. Louis fans would like (the Padres are 4-3 against the Cards this season), but in the end, Albert Pujols will put this team on his back if necessary and carry them into the National League Championship Series. The Padres have no one with 20 home runs and no one with 85 RBI. Only Dave Roberts has the capability to steal, so I don't see them putting up more than four runs in any game of the series.
Cadinals win 3-2.
Houston vs. Atlanta: The Astros have the huge advantage of starting the series with Andy Pettite on the mound. No pitcher has had a better second half than Pettite. He's 13-2 since July 1 and he's won seven straight starts. But he's facing Tim Hudson, who threw nine shutout innings against the Astros in his only start against them this year. Whoever takes that first game will win the series, and Pettite will win.
Game two is a juicy pitching matchup between Roger Clemens and John Smoltz. Neither of these veteran fireballers had a very good September, but in the playoffs, they'll be pulling from experience. Even still, this game will not be as meaningful as the game one. So it remains a toss up.
In the end, the Braves are doomed to take the route of so many Braves team before them. It hasn't been their year the past nine division titles, and it isn't this year either. Andruw Jones is an incredible player, but one individual isn't enough to win a playoff series. The Astros, on the other hand, are an incredibly balanced offensive team. If Biggio has an off night, Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, or Lance Berkman can back him up. If Andruw Jones has a bad game, the Braves are done. Adam LaRoche will swing at anything under pressure and Chipper Jones did not finish very strong. The Braves' young talent was incredible in the regular season (including beating the Astros five of six times), but won't be able to handle the Pettite, Clemens, Oswalt combination under pressure. Plus, with Brad Lidge closing games, the Braves won't have much of a chance at late-game comebacks.
Astros win 3-1.
Chicago vs. Boston: This should be a classic battle between an explosive offense and a stellar pitching staff. The Red Sox bring home runs and late-game heroics from David Ortiz. The White Sox bring one-run victories and stolen bases. Conteras will silence Boston's bats Tuesday at U.S. Cellular Field. He helped the White Sox survive their way into the playoffs by winning his last eight starts and compiling a 1.99 ERA in September. Matt Clement, on the other hand, went 1-3 in September. Since entering the All-Star break at 10-2, Clement went just 3-4 in the second half.
David Wells outdueled Mark Buehrle in Boston in August in a 9-8 slugfest and the same thing will happen in Chicago in game two. They are two very similar pitchers who are susceptible to giving up home runs. That definitely gives the Red Sox the edge.
This series will come down to whether the White Sox can win in Fenway (where they were 1-2 this season). Either Freddy Garcia or Jon Garland will pitch a gem in Boston and the White Sox will bring the series back to Chicago, where they will win the fifth game. A week ago, I would have picked the White Sox to lose in the first round. But this team has won five straight, including sweeping the Indians in Cleveland to finish the season, even though they didn't need a single one of the victories to make the playoffs.
The Red Sox are obviously a superior offensive team, and their two victories will likely be blowouts. But Boston doesn't have a reliable closer and the White Sox will use mechanics and small ball to produce meaningful runs against weak bullpen pitching in the late innings.
White Sox win 3-2.
Yankees vs. Angels: As in the Astros-Braves series, one team in this series has better pitching and better hitting. Plus, the Yankees have years of playoff experience and an owner who won't stand for anything less than a World Series title. The Angels do have home field advantage (thanks Showalter) and Bartolo Colon on the mound on Tuesday. Plus, they're 6-4 against the Yankees this season. Added up, that may be just enough to get one win against New York, likely in game two, with John Lackey over Shawn Chacon.
New York will not lose in Yankee stadium, and they will come out with a vengeance in any elimination game against their opponent, after what happened last year. The Yankees went 19-9 in September (so did the Angels). But the Yankees have so many more offensive weapons to rely on in hard times. They hit 82 more home runs than the Angels this season and scored 125 more runs.
The big difference in Mariano Rivera. Even though his 43 saves seem just about average, hitters are batting just .177 against him. In his lone appearance against the Angels this year, he went 2.2 innings without allowing a hit.
October is the best month to be a sports fan. You've got the baseball playoffs (which, unlike basketball and football, involve only the upper-eschelon teams and don't drag out for two months), the heart of the NFL regular season, and college football. Professional baseball writers will try, and fail, during the course of the day to select which teams will move on from the opening round of the baseball playoffs. I am no different.
Only four teams will remain after this week in contention for the World Series title. The following are my selections:
San Diego vs. St. Louis: The Padres will stun everyone by beating Cris Carpenter tomorrow night in St. Louis. The Cardinals are cold from playing largely meaningless games in September. In his last four starts, Carpenter is 0-1 with a 9.14 ERA. Also, one of his five losses this year came to the Padres. Peavy, on the other hand, had a 2.03 ERA in September and is backed by a team that has won five its last six.
From there, it will be all downhill for San Diego. Pedro Astacio doesn't have much of a chance against Mark Mulder in game two, and the Padres' offense just doesn't have the firepower to stay with the Cardinals. Adam Eaton has a chance to beat Matt Morris in the first game in San Diego, but it will likely be an offensive showcase for both teams, with the Cards coming out on top.
The Padres are a mediocre team that snuck into the playoffs because they play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball history. They will give the Cardinals more problems than St. Louis fans would like (the Padres are 4-3 against the Cards this season), but in the end, Albert Pujols will put this team on his back if necessary and carry them into the National League Championship Series. The Padres have no one with 20 home runs and no one with 85 RBI. Only Dave Roberts has the capability to steal, so I don't see them putting up more than four runs in any game of the series.
Cadinals win 3-2.
Houston vs. Atlanta: The Astros have the huge advantage of starting the series with Andy Pettite on the mound. No pitcher has had a better second half than Pettite. He's 13-2 since July 1 and he's won seven straight starts. But he's facing Tim Hudson, who threw nine shutout innings against the Astros in his only start against them this year. Whoever takes that first game will win the series, and Pettite will win.
Game two is a juicy pitching matchup between Roger Clemens and John Smoltz. Neither of these veteran fireballers had a very good September, but in the playoffs, they'll be pulling from experience. Even still, this game will not be as meaningful as the game one. So it remains a toss up.
In the end, the Braves are doomed to take the route of so many Braves team before them. It hasn't been their year the past nine division titles, and it isn't this year either. Andruw Jones is an incredible player, but one individual isn't enough to win a playoff series. The Astros, on the other hand, are an incredibly balanced offensive team. If Biggio has an off night, Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, or Lance Berkman can back him up. If Andruw Jones has a bad game, the Braves are done. Adam LaRoche will swing at anything under pressure and Chipper Jones did not finish very strong. The Braves' young talent was incredible in the regular season (including beating the Astros five of six times), but won't be able to handle the Pettite, Clemens, Oswalt combination under pressure. Plus, with Brad Lidge closing games, the Braves won't have much of a chance at late-game comebacks.
Astros win 3-1.
Chicago vs. Boston: This should be a classic battle between an explosive offense and a stellar pitching staff. The Red Sox bring home runs and late-game heroics from David Ortiz. The White Sox bring one-run victories and stolen bases. Conteras will silence Boston's bats Tuesday at U.S. Cellular Field. He helped the White Sox survive their way into the playoffs by winning his last eight starts and compiling a 1.99 ERA in September. Matt Clement, on the other hand, went 1-3 in September. Since entering the All-Star break at 10-2, Clement went just 3-4 in the second half.
David Wells outdueled Mark Buehrle in Boston in August in a 9-8 slugfest and the same thing will happen in Chicago in game two. They are two very similar pitchers who are susceptible to giving up home runs. That definitely gives the Red Sox the edge.
This series will come down to whether the White Sox can win in Fenway (where they were 1-2 this season). Either Freddy Garcia or Jon Garland will pitch a gem in Boston and the White Sox will bring the series back to Chicago, where they will win the fifth game. A week ago, I would have picked the White Sox to lose in the first round. But this team has won five straight, including sweeping the Indians in Cleveland to finish the season, even though they didn't need a single one of the victories to make the playoffs.
The Red Sox are obviously a superior offensive team, and their two victories will likely be blowouts. But Boston doesn't have a reliable closer and the White Sox will use mechanics and small ball to produce meaningful runs against weak bullpen pitching in the late innings.
White Sox win 3-2.
Yankees vs. Angels: As in the Astros-Braves series, one team in this series has better pitching and better hitting. Plus, the Yankees have years of playoff experience and an owner who won't stand for anything less than a World Series title. The Angels do have home field advantage (thanks Showalter) and Bartolo Colon on the mound on Tuesday. Plus, they're 6-4 against the Yankees this season. Added up, that may be just enough to get one win against New York, likely in game two, with John Lackey over Shawn Chacon.
New York will not lose in Yankee stadium, and they will come out with a vengeance in any elimination game against their opponent, after what happened last year. The Yankees went 19-9 in September (so did the Angels). But the Yankees have so many more offensive weapons to rely on in hard times. They hit 82 more home runs than the Angels this season and scored 125 more runs.
The big difference in Mariano Rivera. Even though his 43 saves seem just about average, hitters are batting just .177 against him. In his lone appearance against the Angels this year, he went 2.2 innings without allowing a hit.
posted by Big Skinny @ 11:00 PM
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